Most discussion about the possibility of recession focuses on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. But there are also factors on the supply side of the economy that may tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Among them are the tax and regulatory policies of the Biden administration.

A recession is sometimes defined as a decrease in employment. Other times it is defined as a reduction in real gross domestic product for two quarters or more. Strong labor-force and productivity growth are supply-side factors that make a recession less likely, as is recovery from the pandemic. But increased regulation and increased taxation of capital—two Biden administration policy priorities—are supply-side headwinds that make recession more likely.

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